Thursday, June 25, 2009

MLB Revolution - 3 Innings And You're Out.

Imagine a MLB team with a typical rotation and bullpen whose starting pitchers are used in 3 of every five games.

In a format similar to the All-Star game, a starter would pitch 3 innings, and then be relieved by the next man in the rotation, not a reliever. Unlike the All-Star game however, the reliever is only used to the cover a pitchers inning until the next start is due to be inserted. We called these the "3 Inning and You're Out" rotational theory.

For example, in a 5-game, 5-day period your pitcher combination would look like this:

Game 1 - Starters 1, 2, 3 each get three innings.
Game 2 - Starters 4, 5, 1 each get three innings.
Game 3 - Starters 2, 3, 4 each get three innings.
Game 4 - Starters 5, 1, 2 each get three innings.
Game 5 - Starters 3, 4, 5 each get three innings.

Notice that in a 5 day period no pitcher is goes more than 9 innings, yet, they have a greater impact on the teams success has their are able to contribute to the team 3 out of every 5 games.

Now, let us look at the viability this idea with some factual evidence. During the past 7 games the star-studded line-up of the New York Yankees has faced a starting pitcher they have never before seen due to inter-league play. In that span of time, they have won only one game. Five of the seven pitchers that started against them pitched more than 6 innings. Two of those 5 pitchers play for the less talented Washington Senators. I strongly believe, their success was not due to their great "stuff"; (by stuff I am not referring to steriods), but, to the unfamiliarity between the hitter and pitchers.

We see this all the time in baseball. A superstar strikes out his first time-up, in his second AB he makes some adjustments and has a solid AB,[even if he makes an out], third time up make his final adjustments and crushes the ball.

With the "3 Innings and You're Out" theory the batter is never able to make an adjustment, which keeps him off balance. This gives an additional advantage to the the pitcher who against great hitters in has a 69% potential success rate, assuming the hitter is .310 BA material.

In addition, to the benefit of disorientating the batter, the opposing managers hands are tied as he cannot set up his line-up card in preference of facing a right-handed, or left-hand pitcher.

Sadly, we live in a day and age where some baseball players are more concerned about individual accomplishment than team accomplishments. While "3 innings and You're Out" will allows pitchers to lower their yearly ERA and WHIP, win totals will not be guaranteed. And, mid-season stats will not support All-Star game considerations. However, if logical and logarithmic reasoning are correct, all starting pitchers of the team using the "3 Innings and You're Out" theory will average out to similiar production numbers. Also, saves and holds will be distributes to starters more frequently than to relievers and closers.

The players and team must realize that using the "3 inning and you're out" theory will allow for fresher arms, a well rested bullpen, and reduced injuries.

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Credits: This theory has been discussed by Richard Butler and Rob Rohena for quite soon time.

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